JINSA Report #515 Which Way will Egypt Go? Part II

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September 15, 2005

JINSA Report #518

Which Way will Egypt Go? Part II

Yesterday's theory was that Egypt and the Palestinians could combine
militarily to allow Egypt to threaten Israel in a way it has not since
1967. The military capability Egypt has amassed, plus the ghoulish joy
in killing and dying evidenced by segments of the Palestinian
population, makes this a serious concern.

But Egypt has another concern – internal stability and evolutionary
regime change – shared by the U.S. and Israel, but inimical to
Palestinian radicals. Mubarak's personal goal, like that of every
despot, is to remain in power until he dies, and his greatest fear is
violent overthrow and the revenge of the masses. The Senior Assad model
is much preferred to the Ceausescu model. The best-organized opposition
to Mubarak's secular, nationalist and dictatorial reign is the pan-Arab,
Islamic, dictatorial Muslim Brotherhood with links to other radical
organizations, including al-Qaeda and Islamic Jihad.

So, while it is true that Egypt actively abetted or at least turned a
blind eye to the smuggling of arms, ammunition and spare parts into Gaza
by radicals of every stripe, that
was when Mubarak thought Israel would be the target. Now there is an
increasing concern that Egypt will be the target, and Mubarak has to
worry about Gaza as a center of pan-Islamic terrorism with Cairo as its
target. An influx of radical Palestinians and their allies into Egypt
would result in a strengthening of the Brotherhood that Mubarak has
worked so hard and so brutally to suppress.

Early indications are that the Palestinians will not cooperate with
Egypt any more than they did with Israel to control extremism. The first
days of Palestinian/Egyptian "cooperation" on the border resulted in
thousands of Palestinians flooding into Egyptian territory and waves of
arms flooding the other way. The Egyptian government is furious and has
declared that the border will be closed. But Abu Mazen has all but given
up his (limited) efforts to "co-opt" Hamas and Islamic Jihad into a
"political" process and both of those organizations have declared their
intention to continue operations in hopes of destroying Israel. Money
and arms will have to come from somewhere – we're betting on Iran, the
granddaddy of terror-sponsors.

Winston Churchill defined appeasement as "feeding the alligator in hopes
it will eat you last." Egypt and the other Arabs have been feeding the
alligator in Gaza and the chickens are coming home to roost – to mix
wildly a metaphor. If the Egyptians cannot control the border, the
spillover will result in more terrorism for them and an ever-more
repressive response from the government.

American diplomacy must begin with the requirement that Egypt meet its
security commitments on the Gaza border, bringing in soldiers or third
parties as necessary (Israel has already agreed to a British presence).
There should be no objection, as it suits Mubarak's interest. Then the
U.S. should help to ensure increased openings for a free press,
political parties and a parliamentary election that come closer to the
goal of consensual government as a way of meeting the legitimate
political aspirations of Egyptians. Only the combination will meet
Egypt's need for evolutionary change.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3149

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