JINSA Report #563 Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran

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April 12, 2006

JINSA Report #563

Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran

That's it. That's the whole list of national security priorities.

Whatever we do in Iraq and whatever Iraqi politicians do; whatever we do
to Hamas; however hard we look for Bin Laden or al-Zawahiri; whoever
runs our port terminals; whatever the price of gasoline; however we
secure our borders; whoever leaked Valerie Plame's name – under the
shadow of a nuclear-capable Iran, American and allied options are
reduced.

Iran's announcement that it has mastered the enrichment of uranium on an
industrial scale, and thus stands steps away from being weapons-capable,
was poetic. "Iran's nuclear activities are like a waterfall which has
begun to flow. It cannot be stopped."

Poetry aside, we disagree.

At least one analyst suggests that Iran could only generate enough for a
one-shot demonstration to halt the current round of talks at the UN by
presenting the Security Council with a fait accompli. An Israeli
official said Iran had proved a "rudimentary research and development
capability" needed to create nuclear weapons, but it did not mean that
the Iranians had "mastered the nuclear fuel cycle." Israel's Chief of
Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, called the announcement "a
bargaining chip... meant to move the debate to the next point - the
extent of enrichment."

However, even a demonstration project means that Iran has acquired the
knowledge to enrich uranium after which, like biting the apple, you
cannot "un-know." If the Iranian program is not stopped, some analysts
believe Iran could master the fuel cycle by the end of the year. This
is what Israel considers the "point of no return."

The Iranians themselves say they are looking to increase the centrifuge
string from the current 164 (enough to test the technology) to 3,000
(enough for industrial purposes, or to make one bomb per year) and then
to 50,000 (do the math yourself). The ringer here, of course, is that
we don't know what we don't know. There are suggestions of a parallel,
clandestine program; that the 3,000 centrifuges already exist, that the
knowledge base is stronger than we think.

It is easier, in this case, to be Iran than it is to be the rest of us.
Iran has only to determine its path and travel along. The key
diplomatic players (the US, Russia, China, the EU-3, Israel, and the UN)
are still working through a jumble of plans, policies and possibilities,
with some still wedded to their financial objectives and others wedded
to the idea that the US or Israel will make the problem disappear
without involving them – except in the condemnation phase.

It won't happen. This Iranian demonstration may be the only warning we
get to dispense with our individual financial or political goals and
find a unified way to a) make the Iranians stop, or b) make the Iranians
stop. That's it. That's the only priority.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3377

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