August 31, 2006
Number 599
JINSA Report
http://www.jinsa.org
"Mexico or Iran?"
The radio host asked, "Which is a greater national security threat to
the United States, the insecurity of America's southern border or Iran's
nuclear ambition?" It wasn't a trick question. True, Iran poses an
international apocalyptic sort of threat; one JINSA takes most
seriously. But at the end of the diplomatic day, we - and even our
reticent allies - will know what to do with a country threatening us
with nuclear weapons.
Mexico, our friend and neighbor, poses a different kind of problem.
Mexico has been roiled by strikes and protests since July, when Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador claimed fraud in the presidential election he
appears to have lost to Felipe Calderon. Several challenges to the
process have been reviewed and denied, and by next week, Mexico's top
electoral court must either declare the winner or annul the election.
Assuming Calderon will win, Lopez Obrador has vowed to create a
"parallel government." He will not recognize Calderon's administration
and his legislators will not cooperate in Parliament. He urged his
supporters to stay in the streets to protest and strike against Calderon
and pay taxes to his movement. He is planning a "parallel inauguration"
and, according to The Washington Post, "People close to Lopez Obrador
say he is assuming the role of his hero, 18th century President Benito
Juarez, who led a roving, 'unofficial' presidency from 1863 to 1867
during the French invasion, before driving out the invaders and
executing the French-installed Emperor Maximilian."
Lopez Obrador doesn't have to do much to make Mexico ungovernable.
Calderon will have few palatable choices for exerting control and the
protest movement could turn violent - there have already been clashes
with police. The Mexican economy will go south and our neighbors will
come north in vastly increased numbers.
In the meantime, in an odd accident of timing (?), proponents of illegal
immigration and easy access to American citizenship are planning a march
on Washington that will coincide with the declaration by the Mexican
court of a winner in the election. They expect, they say, a million
people. On the other hand, Members of Congress report that their
constituencies at home demand stronger border controls.
It is not apocalyptic the way Iran is apocalyptic. But it is immediate,
real and could create a flood of political and economic refugees and the
possibility that political violence will come accompany them. It has the
potential for a different kind of violence if the U.S. tries to secure
the border amid an ever-greater wave of people trying to flee upheaval
at home. It has the potential for a U.S.-Mexican confrontation of the
sort we have not seen in nearly a century. We are not used to thinking
of Mexico this way.
Two other points: Texas law enforcement officers have warned that
Arabic-speaking people are learning Spanish and integrating into Mexican
culture, then paying smugglers to sneak them into the U.S. Yesterday,
Syria and Venezuela signed a "no visa" agreement - how many Syrians will
transit Venezuela on their way north and to what end?
So, Iran or Mexico? Unfortunately, the U.S. is ill-prepared for either.
The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW * Suite 515 * Washington, DC, 20036
Ph (202) 667-3900 * F (202) 667-0601
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