JINSA Viewpoint #30 Elections

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November 10, 2006

Viewpoint – Elections – Morrie Amitay

Given JINSA's twin mandate to support a credible national defense and
encourage closer U.S.-Israel ties, how does the outcome of the recent
mid-term elections affect its agenda? Overall, the Democratic takeover
of the House and the Senate does not bode particularly well for
furthering these objectives.

In the House, much will depend on whether a moderate wing, reinforced by
a number of relatively conservative newcomers, can halt the leftward
drift of the party in recent years. The Majority Leader race between
Jack Murtha (Penn.), with his call for an immediate pullout from Iraq,
and the current Whip, Steny Hoyer (Md.), should reveal a great deal
about the future direction of House Democrats. With his rallying fellow
Dems to back pro-Israel initiatives and centrist approach, Hoyer offers
a stark contrast to Murtha and his supporters. Murtha's own military
experience and role on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee gained
him a pro-defense reputation in the past. Energized, however, by the
publicity and adulation he received from the anti-war forces for his
calls to abandon Iraq, Murtha has changed his behind-the-scenes profile
and is now seeking a leadership spot. The soon-to-be Speaker, Nancy
Pelosi (Calif.), has cultivated some ties with Jewish groups, but will
not be as directly involved in legislative activities and initiatives
affecting Israel, though she will obviously play a key role in general.
What is worrisome is that some fringe Jewish groups and wealthy
liberal supporters whose views on Israel and national defense can
(charitably) be described as "dovish” will have greater influence on a
Democratically-controlled Congress.

A number of very senior Democrats who will be chairing major House
committees rank in the bottom 10 percent of the class (of 435) when it
comes to Israel-related issues and support for robust defense
expenditures. They are:
- David Obey (Wisc.)--Appropriations
- John Conyers (Mich.)--Judiciary
- John Dingell (Mich.)--Energy and Commerce
- George Miller (Calif.)--Education and Work Force
- Nick Rahall (W. Virg.)--Resources
In fact, all five voted recently against the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism
Act, which passed 361 to 37. While wielding influence on the party and
attracting media attention, hopefully they will be more engaged with
domestic issues rather than those affecting JINSA's major interests.

On the positive side, Tom Lantos (Calif.) is in line to take over as
chair of the House International Relations Committee. Israel has no
stronger, effective, committed supporter in Congress who works well with
his GOP colleagues. The new chair of the Foreign Operations
Appropriation Committee will be Nita Lowey (Ny.), which should be
regarded as a plus. If Murtha moves on to a leadership position, Norm
Dicks (Wash.) would chair the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Dicks
is a friend of both the defense and pro-Israel communities. Based on
his record, Ike Skelton (Mo.), who is in line to be chair of the Armed
Services Committee, should present few problems.

With regard to the Senate, Joe Lieberman's very impressive win over Ned
Lamont with his anti-war single-issue campaign was the best news on
election night for both Israel and America's future security. Less
momentous, but noteworthy, was the defeat in Rhode Island of (nominally)
Republican Lincoln Chafee, who chairs the Near East Subcommittee of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Following in his late father's
tradition, Chafee was an unrelenting critic of Israel, and
single-handedly was able to derail John Bolton's appointment as U.N.
ambassador.

On the negative side of the ledger, four staunch Senate supporters of
JINSA's mandate lost their re-election contests--Rick Santorum (Penn.),
Mike DeWine (Ohio), Jim Talent (MO)--and George Allen (Virg.). Allen's
replacement, Jim Webb has recently advocated a "regional approach” in
the Middle East. This is a cause for concern because it would invariably
mean putting pressure on Israel for further concessions in order to
placate our Arab "allies”. Santorum was the leader in the Senate in
seeking regime change in Iran and thwarting its nuclear ambitions.

With a Democratic Senate majority, Joe Biden (Del.) (who is running for
President in ‘08) will take over the helm of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee. While he could be considered as a better choice
than Dick Lugar (Ind.), whom he will replace, Biden can be erratic at
times and go off on his own foreign policy tangents. Patrick Leahy
(Vt.), who will chair the Judiciary Committee, is also in line to chair
the Foreign Operations Subcommittee of Appropriations. As a frequent
critic of Israel who has supported few positive initiatives, he is no
great friend of the defense establishment either. Robert Byrd (W.
Virg.), with the worst Israel-related record in the Senate, will chair
the full Appropriations Committee. Hopefully, Byrd will not interject
himself in specific defense appropriations issues where Dan Inouye
(Hawaii) will be in charge, working well with his GOP counterpart, Ted
Stevens (Alaska), both in tune with our agenda. Carl Levin (Mich.) will
replace John Warner (Virg.) as chair of the Armed Services Committee--a
net plus on strictly Israel -related issues--but not on certain defense
programs.

The new 110th Congress will undoubtedly seek to have a say in future
U.S. actions in Iraq, with the outcome there bearing directly on the
future of the entire region. Here Iran's role will be of paramount
importance, with signs now pointing ominously to a policy of
accommodation with the mullahs--and their nuclear ambitions. The
challenge will be for a lame duck Republican administration to be able
to work with a Democratic Congress to devise a strategy that secures our
country's vital interests in the Middle East, while ensuring Israel's
security. If you add to this formidable task, the intense political
preparations for the 2008 Presidential election, the increasingly
negative trends in Latin America, North Korean nukes, Russia's slide
toward autocracy, the growing power of China--and, incidentally, the
worldwide Islamofascist terrorist threat--we have a helluva year shaping up!

To view this JINSA Viewpoint online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/articles/view.html?documentid=3588

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