Change Here and Change There
It was hard to tear ourselves away from the inauguration and impossible to think we are the same country today as we were yesterday at 11:59. We have always believed that ours is an exceptional country, particularly in the peaceful passing of power between presidents and between parties. Ours is an extraordinary country, as the election of a minority president by the majority makes evident. But the ways in which America is different today are ways that have to do with us as a people and adjustments to our view of ourselves. If our adversaries think we have changed in ways that matter to them, they will be disappointed.
That doesn't mean there isn't great change afoot, and as we go back to work today, change abroad is real and it matters.
There was a double change in the Middle East over the weekend. It was Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari who told Kuwait television that the Arab foreign ministers had been unable to reach consensus on a statement regarding Gaza. When was the last time Iraq spoke for the Arab world, and the last time Arab rulers couldn't agree that Israel was the problem? The foreign ministers divided loosely into the pro-Iranians and the anti-Iranians, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt leading the latter.
The old paradigm - Israel vs. the Arab states and the "Palestinian problem" has to be solved before the Arab countries can work with us - is over.
The Associated Press reported that the European countries, Arabs and the UN have all pledged money or aid since the cease-fire, but none of the donors want to deal with Hamas. Israel wants the aid funneled through Abu Mazen's Fatah, but the Palestinian civil war in which Hamas threw Fatah out of Gaza never ended and there is no indication that Hamas - holding "victory" rallies and intercepting humanitarian aid shipments at gunpoint in Gaza yesterday - will acquiesce to Fatah control of aid or anything else. Credible reports from Gaza indicate that Hamas has been arresting (and torturing) Fatah supporters, particularly since the cease-fire. On top of which, Abu Mazen's term of office ended earlier this month and even some West Bank Palestinians are looking for change - not necessarily positive change. Many are angry that Abu Mazen prevented pro-Hamas rallies during the war.
There are no Palestinians to whom to give their putative state. The state will have to wait. But Iran cannot wait.
Iranian progress toward nuclear weapons is a threat President Obama has addressed, and while we are admitted skeptics of his approach, we agree he has to try. But Iran has to be seen in its non-nuclear regional configuration as well. Israel's action in Gaza has exposed the fact that the pro-Iranian axis (Iran-Syria-Hamas-Hezbollah) is pulling our erstwhile ally Turkey away from its Western moorings. The potential damaging implications for Europe and NATO if Turkey ceases to operate as a secular, democratic country should command President Obama's earliest attention.
Welcome to the world of Middle East politics, President Obama, where nothing is certain except that when change comes, it will rock the boat.
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