Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Are Not The Whole Story
The Francop, an Antigua-flagged freighter, carried nearly 60 tons of arms and explosives from Iran, apparently destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. It sailed in violation of UN resolutions at both ends-Iran is forbidden to export arms and Hezbollah is forbidden to import them. The cargo did not arrive; the ship is now at the Israeli port of Ashdod.
How and where the Francop sailed, who watched and who helped is not yet entirely clear. There are reports that the U.S. Navy tracked the ship from its departure from Bandar Abbas, Iran until it arrived at the Suez Canal. There are reports that the Egyptian Navy closely tracked the ship's passage through the Canal and out into the Mediterranean Sea, where the United States and Israel were in the middle of a major joint exercise called Juniper Cobra. One report said the ship sailed to Beirut, but knowing it was under surveillance, Hezbollah did not offload the weapons. It went from there to Tripoli and sailed near Syria before turning toward Cyprus. At that point, the Israel Navy contacted the captain and with his permission, boarded the ship and found the weapons hidden under civilian cargo. The IDF emphasized in its announcement that there was no violence in the seizure.
The Francop is part of the saga of the Santorini, the Karine-A weapons ships and the weapons convoy that was stopped in January trekking across Sudan. It is a reminder that Iran's nuclear ambitions are not the whole story. Iran's goals include:
Regional hegemony. Strengthening ties with Syria and Turkey produces a crescent of influence north of Israel and Jordan (the new relationship with Turkey also has implications for Egypt, as Cairo and Istanbul are historic rivals for power in the Sunni world). Arming regional proxies Hezbollah and Hamas is part of that strategy and Egypt has been attacked by Hezbollah with increasing frequency;
Maintaining economic and energy relations with China and Russia to offset the possibility of U.S.-led sanctions;
Strengthening relations with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua to force the United States to expend security resources in its own hemisphere.
None of these require nuclear capability and all are proceeding apace. What appears to have been U.S., Israeli and Egyptian cooperation on the progress of the Francop is a good thing, creating and extending the long arm of prevention. But it will take more than that to stop Iran's pursuit of regional hegemony and the undermining of America's allies-and stop Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and the destruction of Israel.
U.S. policy should begin with strong support for the forces of democracy inside Iran itself-the election fraud uncovered a well of deep and abiding hatred for the government and its policies. As a matter of principle, the United States should always be on the side of the people against repression.
And, as we saw in this case, strengthening U.S.-Israel security cooperation, through Juniper Cobra and other meetings and exercises, results in both countries and their friends and allies being better able to confront the immediate and the longer term threats posed by Iran.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment