JINSA Report #578 WMD Find?

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June 22, 2006

JINSA Report #578

WMD Find?

The discovery of 500 pre-1991 Sarin/mustard gas-filled shells in Iraq
and the belief of the U.S. government that more remain, has prompted two
opposing and equally incorrect claims: one is that it vindicates the WMD
rationale for deposing Saddam; the other is that it is "no big deal."

For the first - We didn't go to war over 500 decaying shells. The U.S.
entry into Iraq was predicated on the assumption that a) Saddam had
maintained his WMD and missile capability in violation of UN mandates,
and b) in the post-9-11 age of mega-terrorism, it was imprudent to wait
until a "grave and gathering threat" exercised its options. Further,
UN-mandated sanctions on Iraqi purchases that could enhance a
non-conventional weapons program were crumbling, meaning that Saddam
would soon be able to import the elements missing from his program and
crack the code on WMD missile warheads.

Everything we've learned since then, particularly in light of the
Oil-for-Food scandal, proves the "capabilities waiting for materials
theory", not the "we're looking for old munitions that no one declared"
theory.

We still believe Saddam had a working program and shipped parts of it to
Syria prior to the coalition invasion of 2003, and agreed with the
Administration that Saddam's policy of denying inspectors access to
potential WMD sites while sponsoring terrorism abroad made Iraq a
necessary target in the war against terrorists and the states that
harbor and support them. But this week's government report is far from a
smoking gun.

But this discovery is much more than "no big deal."

IEDs have been the bane of the American existence in Iraq. While the
U.S. military has become better at detecting and detonating them, the
IEDs have also been growing more sophisticated - possibly with the help
of Iran. Had the bad guys found the shells before we did, it would
likely only have been a matter of time before our troops encountered the
first chemical-equipped IED.

In addition, there is a terrorist market in chemicals and chemical
capabilities. The coalition discovery of 500 Sarin/mustard gas-filled
shells means 500 fewer shells on the market and renewed coalition
interest in finding what our government believes remains.

That makes yesterday a very big deal and a very good day for our troops.

Today, the Senate voted 86-13 against a proposal to withdraw all U.S.
combat troops from Iraq by July 1, 2007, and 60-39 against a nonbinding
resolution that would call for the administration to begin withdrawing
troops with no timetable for the war's end. More days like yesterday
would be the best way to ensure that our troops come out of Iraq in the
most expeditious manner consistent with security our troops and the
Iraqi people, and support for the Iraqi government and its forces.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3441

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