Reset Relationships, Part I
The Obama Administration wants to "push the reset button," to quote Vice President Joe Biden, hoping to invigorate relationships with countries that have been in our proverbial doghouse. In the case of Russia and Iran, both Mr. Biden and President Obama took pains to announce continuing disapproval of various policies of dictatorial regimes, but a willingness to look for separate areas of possible cooperation. Syria received private and congressional emissaries, plus parts for repairing two aging Boeing 747s.
Reset with Russia is probably a good thing at some level; Russia is not the Soviet Union and not an enemy of the United States. Russia's increasingly authoritarian and threatening behavior at home and abroad, however, begs the question, "Who will reset what?" The invasion of Georgia, cutting natural gas supplies to Europe at the height of a very cold winter and a sudden, massive "denial of service" that shut down more than 80 percent of Kyrgyzstan's Internet bandwidth are aggressive acts against countries that look to the United States for political reassurance and leadership. [The Kyrgyzstan Internet attack was almost totally unremarked upon in the West, but resembled Russia's attack on Georgia's capabilities during last summer's war. The proximate result was that the Kyrgyz government announced the United States could no longer use local facilities to ship vital supplies to coalition forces in Afghanistan.]
One of Russia's goals is to have the Obama Administration reverse the decision to locate Ballistic Missile Defense radars in Poland and the Czech Republic. Putin knows there is no threat to Russia, but he does not want American soldiers to accompany the radars into former Warsaw Pact countries. Mr. Biden did say plans for installation continue, but also said the administration would only deploy ballistic missile defenses that are proven and cost effective. Since one hopes they will never be used, proving that they work to the satisfaction of people who don't believe in the principle, and proving they would be more cost effective than rebuilding countries after a missile attack are both unrealistic.
So the outline of a deal is clear - the United States gives up the radars and Russia, well Russia does what?
Selling parts for old planes to Syria certainly poses no security threat to Israel or Lebanon, but it sends a disconcerting message to two of America's regional allies. The sale required suspending congressionally mandated trade sanctions imposed in 2004 along with the naming of Syria as a state sponsor of terror. Syria is no less a state sponsor of terrorism today - hosting Hamas's Khalid Meshaal and giving him open access in the Syrian media to call for terrorism against Israel. Syria remains obstructionist regarding the UN Tribunal investigating the car bomb murder of anti-Syrian Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri and the Syrians were involved in al Qaeda-related insurgent fighting in Palestinian refugee camps in northern Lebanon.
So the outline of the deal is clear - the United States suspends trade sanctions and Syria, well Syria does what?
President Obama said he "is looking at areas where we can have constructive dialogue, where we can directly engage with [Iran]. And my expectation is, in the coming months, we will be looking for openings that can be created where we can start sitting across the table, face to face; of diplomatic overtures that noted will allow us to move our policy in a new direction." The mullahs might have been disappointed when the President mentioned Iranian "financing of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas, the bellicose language that they've used towards Israel, their development of a nuclear weapon or their pursuit of a nuclear weapon...contrary to the interests of international peace."
So the outline of the deal is clear - the United States concentrates on areas where we have no problem with Iranian behavior and Iran, well Iran does what?
The first problem is that the administration appears unclear on what it should/will be able to extract from recalcitrant countries in exchange for American gifts to their problematic governments. The second problem is the bus under which the administration risks throwing smaller and more vulnerable allies.
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