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Monday, March 27, 2006

Israeli Election Special Newsletter & Invitation

 
  Israel's daily newsmagazine
March 27, 2006
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OPENING LINES:
Election Day Approaches

Israel Insider is proud to be part of a unique initiative to broadcast 10 hours of election coverage, online, with English translations and commentary on real-time news from Israel's fateful election. Sign up here and get all the action streamed to your computer screen.

After a long break in our newsletter, I am pleased to get back into the act, with Nyet, Nyet, Yvette? the first commentary I've written in a while, detailing the extraordinary difficulty of finding a candidate worth voting for in the current election. It's not hard to find who to vote against.... Maybe it's my American upbringing, or maybe I am hoping for an upset, but I am a believer in the importance of voting. If you're an Israeli, go out and do it -- dirty work, but someone has to do it. If you're not Israeli, don't despair -- by signing up for our election day Shmooze, you'll be able to take part in a virtual vote, results of which will be broadcast on Israeli TV.

Meanwhile, in reality, there are signs that Kadima continues to weaken, as Ehud Olmert fails to generate excitement and lukewarm supporters of the ruling party increasingly seek out smaller parties -- pensioners, handicapped soldiers, the "green" environmental party, the "green leaf" pro-pot party -- that mean something personally to them rather than submission to the empty and corrupt doublespeak of Olmert and company. Polls do not look good for Labor and Likud either. It's seems that Israel's electorate is in the mood to "throw the bums out."

Realistically, any Kadima showing under 30 mandates will be counted as a defeat. On the other hand, both Labor and Likud may have trouble breaking 20. There's an outside shot that Lieberman's Israel Beitenu and perhaps even National Union-NRP could surpass Bibi's moribund Likud.

The polls closed at 10pm Israel time (3pm ET), where the exit polls will be announced on Israeli TV channels.

Let the best of a bad bunch win!

Reuven Koret
Publisher

TOP OF THE NEWS:
Kadima drops in polls, Olmert "hopeful" about unilateral pullout support
The centrist Kadima Party dropped in opinion polls a day before Israel's elections, a sign that it could be difficult for acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to establish a ruling coalition.



Articles
Will Israeli voters, pushing pro-pot party, be too stoned to vote?
Green Leaf, pushing for decriminalization of cannabis, may be a surprise victor in Israel's elections, after excellent showings in campus mock polls.

Hamas hopes for generous and quick financial support from Arab summit
On the eve of an Arab summit, Hamas pressed Arab leaders to increase their support to Palestinians and provide it fast, saying its government will need around $170 million a month.

Constitutional questions emerge in case of pro-Israel lobbyists
A federal judge questioned the constitutionality of a law under which two former lobbyists with a pro-Israel group have been charged with receiving and disclosing national defense information.

Abbas issues "veiled threat" to bring down Hamas' government
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday issued a thinly veiled threat to bring down Hamas' new government if it doesn't change its violent ways.

Waiting for election results, US and EU press Israel to open crossings for aid
FM Tzipi Livni has assured US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Gaza crossings will remain open for shipments of aid, so long as there are no security threats.

Israel's polls reflect and influence elections, but they're more uncertain than ever
Throughout Israel's election campaign, polls have consistently shown the new Kadima Party far ahead of its rivals. So why are pollsters getting nervous with the vote just days away?

Union leader with Moroccan roots struggles to keep Labor's core voters
When Peretz took over Labor last year, he was hailed as a savior who could bring working class Middle Eastern Jews into the foundering party of Israel's aging European-bred elite.

Lieberman, calling for removal of "Arab triangle" from Israel, climbs in polls
He wants to swap Arabs for Jews in drawing Israel's final borders and polls indicate that his party will increase its representation in the parliament from 2 to 11 seats.

ADL condemns latest outburst By Jew-baiting London mayor
Abe Foxman condemned Ken Livingstone for remarks urging two leading Jewish developers to "go back to Iran and try their luck with the ayatollahs..."

Israelis head into fateful election with dampened dreams
The emerging consensus, advanced by the Kadima Party, is to abandon much of Judea and Samaria, dismantle settlements and withdraw behind a barrier.

Abbas to warn Hamas: government will fail if it doesn't recognize Israel
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas plans to warn the incoming government led by Hamas that it has no future unless it agrees to recognize Israel.

Peace mission turned away by Libya because of Israeli participants
After approaching the Libyan border hand-in-hand and singing songs of peace, it became clear to a mission of Jews, Muslims and Christians that Libya would not let them enter.

Jerusalem plans to build cable car to ease traffic in Old City
Banking on a continuing rise in tourism, the city of Jerusalem plans to build an $8 million cable car system that will carry visitors from a hill in the modern section of the city to the Western Wall.

Al-Qaida sets sights on Israel and Palestinian territories
Signs are mounting that al-Qaida terrorists are setting their sights on Israel and the Palestinian territories as their next jihad battleground.

Palestinians on verge of civil war? Hamas, Fatah on collision course
The militant Islamic Hamas on Wednesday called a special session of parliament to approve its new Cabinet, sweeping aside objections from Abbas over its refusal to recognize Israel.



RECENT VIEWS
Searching for truth in all the wrong places (like the Knesset)
By Paula R. Stern
The future of Israel is ours to determine. Ultimately, what we must remember, what we must tell the world, is that Israel isn't going anywhere.

Remembering 12 Jews who are no more
By Jacob Raines
For the families, it is a tragedy beyond comprehension. For the Jewish community, it is a catastrophe.

Nyet, Nyet, Yvette?
By Reuven Koret
A day before the election, I identify with the fastest-growing sector of the electorate, maybe even a majority: disenchanted, floating voters.

Have the "Arab Palestinian" Knesset members turned racist?
By Ariel Natan Pasko
It appears that the longtime "Palestinian" voices in the Israeli Knesset have turned away from equality and integration and toward a separatist racism.

Thinking through retreat
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
A vote for Kadima is a vote for retreat to temporary lines that will only invite Palestinian terror to induce further retreats.

Meeting Our People Face to Face
By Moshe Kempinski
Polls say 35% support Kadima, but we had trouble finding even one. We finally found one, but he wouldn't open his door. He sounded vaguely like Ehud Olmert.

Kadima will bring Kassams to Tel Aviv
By Stan Goodenough
Tel Aviv's Jews have shown little sympathy for threatened Israeli populations in the north and south. If they elect Olmert, they will be endangered too.

George Bush's Diplomatic Ambiguities
By Rachel Neuwirth
Is its message that those who would destroy Israel should follow the deception pioneered by Yasser Arafat, with coaching from the State Department?

Bird Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest
By Ellen W. Horowitz
Then, when I saw flocks of migratory birds, I'd grab the binocs and rush the kids out to see the sight. Now I yell "duck", grab the kids and run for cover.

Olmert must appeal for clemency to Bush, or Jonathan will die
By Esther Pollard
If the Prime Minister will not respond at once by making an immediate appeal to President Bush, then he personally will be sentencing Jonathan to death.

Justice In Time
By Micah D. Halpern
Israel watched and waited. Israel prepared and Israel persevered. And it all came together on March 14th.

A Dangerous Hypocrite
By Yehuda Poch
Israelis have an aversion to being considered "freiers", or fools. But should they elect Olmert, the price of their foolishness could be their lives.

The bright side of Amona
By Shmuel Sackett
The bloody events at Amona were uplifting, inspirational and extremely motivating. Before Amona I was depressed and frustrated. Today I am flying high.

Security: A Guaranteed Winner
By Ellen W. Horowitz
Myths die hard 'round these parts. But the legend of the battle-weary Israelis, who'd rather rest in peace than fight just battles, bit the dust Purim.

Lost in Tel Aviv II
By Orit
I'm planning to spend Passover -- the time of our liberation -- with my family in the US. It will be somewhat of a pilot trip. All I want is freedom.



Briefs
Court sentences Moscow synagogue attacker to 13 years in prison

Criminal Explosion in Netanya injures three people

Israeli air strike kills Palestinian terrorist in Gaza

Israeli liaison officers in W. Bank will cut contacts with PA after Hamas takes office

Jewish victims of Chilean bus plunge flown back to US

U.S. security objections foil Israeli software company's plans

Palestinian teenager crawling toward border killed by IDF

Israel's Olmert says he'll negotiate with US before more pullouts

Israel to put police and army on high alert Sunday, ahead of general election



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AJC Mideast Briefing

   
     
 
 

A Slow Race, a Dark Horse, and a Few Imponderables:

Israel on the Eve of Elections

A Weekly Briefing on Israeli and Middle Eastern Affairs
March 27, 2006

Dr. Eran Lerman
Director Israel/Middle East Office

"Start worrying. Details to follow," goes the quintessential Jewish telegram. Some strange sense that things might go awfully awry still hangs over the Israeli political scene a day before the vital vote: Indeed, one left-wing group took out a full-page ad in Ha'aretz to ask voters to envision what the headlines might look like if a low turnout tomorrow gives decisive victory to the "orange" right wing-the settlers and their supporters. This is but one of several surprising outcomes that cannot be entirely ruled out-some of them more worrying than others.

This has been a surprisingly sedate campaign, almost surreal in its tranquility (except for one Labor Party worker who was killed when trying to hang a banner from an electricity pole), given the magnitude of the issues at stake, the scope of the political revolution inherent in the dramatic rise of Kadima as the dominant party in the polls, and the shocks we have been subjected to within the last few weeks-from the stroke that incapacitated prime Minister Ariel Sharon, to the Hamas victory that all but killed what was left of the peace process. Still, the debate did not go far beyond some personal mud-slinging and a few serious attempts to reframe the issues.

Moreover, of the major developments that could have given a vital edge to the right-wing camp-i.e., the aggregate of Likud, which seems set to do poorly; of the two right-wing parties, which seem set to do well, namely, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel is our Home") Party and the National Religious Party/National Union alliance; and of the two ultra-Orthodox, and increasingly nationalist, parties with their solid base of support, the Sephardi Shas Party and the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism-two salient prospects have, in fact, failed to materialize:

      • There has been, so far, no wave of terror (not for lack of trying, by Islamic Jihad and some Fatah activists, who seem keen on embarrassing Hamas, but are not highly accomplished in keeping their plans to themselves.)

      • Another threat to Kadima might have come from the international arena, had there been a stampede to break ranks and speak to Hamas. But since the first players to do so, the Russians and the Turks, garnered no results at all, there was little appetite in Europe to be humiliated by Khalid Mish`al (or to humiliate Ehud Olmert) in the same fashion. It is telling that one of Binyamin Netanyahu's supporters saw fit to mention Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer's lame excuse of a paper-"The Israel Lobby"-as proof that Israel's standing in America has been ruined rather than rescued by the Disengagement, but this simply indicates that this weak reed is all that this theory can latch on to, at this stage at least.

Thus, the one element that could still lift the right to power-or, at least, disable Olmert from putting together a viable center-left coalition, if he so wishes-could come the other way: not through disaster or political passion, but through boredom. If enough complacent centrists, particularly disaffected young people, stay home, the well-organized and highly committed right may well surge to within reach of the necessary 61 Knesset seats.

Even if this does not happen (and the odds are that it will not, as this would require a collapse of Kadima to fewer than 30 seats, since Labor, Meretz, and the Arab parties are almost certain to have at least 30, perhaps up to 35, among them), the drift to the right could mean that Olmert would not be able, or willing, to govern without bringing in at least one major partner from the right, making Kadima the center rather than the far-right edge of the next government. Such a partner could come in the form of one or more of the three following players, none of whom would offer an easy alliance for Olmert to strike or to maintain:

      1. A "new" Likud, with Netanyahu removed by the magnitude of the party's failure (some polls speak of 13 seats-a sad remnant of what once was Israel's dominant party) and a more conciliatory person, such as Sylvan Shalom, installed as leader. Given the prominence of hard-right voices within the party list, however, this could lead to a further split, rendering Likud useless as an ally.

      2. The dark horse of this election, Lieberman, who ran on two interwoven messages-redrawing the borders so as to leave many Israeli Arabs on the Palestinian side; and fighting crime with an iron fist-might end up with the support of much more than his Russian immigrant power base. If so, the pressure to look upon him as a partner, despite his troubling style, might become irresistible. He may not be familiar to the great majority of American Jews, and his abrasive style is problematic, but the cost of co-opting him may be less destructive, in the long run, than the alternative.

      3. The latter, indeed, would be Shas-whose return to positions of power may well ignite not only the debate over child allowances, putting a dangerous strain on social and economic policies that Netanyahu, to his credit, managed to correct; but also over the bitter divisions about the ultra-Orthodox dodging of military service, exacerbating the already troubled relationship with the non-Orthodox denominations.

None of this may seem particularly appetizing, but Israeli politics has always produced strange fellowships. Unless a very dramatic reversal in voting patterns brings a new surge of voters to Kadima at the last moment, it will be necessary for all of us to adjust to a complex reality, and equally complicated choices, in the days ahead.


 
     
 


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JINSA Report #559 Israel as a Security Asset for the United States

JINSA
1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW
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Washington, DC 20036

202-667-3900
202-667-0601 Fax

March 27, 2006

JINSA Report #559

Israel as a Security Asset for the United States

In 1979, JINSA published a "quick reference guide" to the capabilities
Israel brings to U.S.-Israel security cooperation. We review it
periodically, revise it slightly and republish it when some people -
including professors at Harvard and the University of Chicago - seem
unsure why the U.S. regards Israel as a partner in a difficult region
rather than the beneficiary of "The Lobby." Twenty-seven years after its
debut, the list remains largely intact. Israel has:

1. A secure location in a crucial part of the world
2. A well-developed military infrastructure
3. The ability to maintain, service and repair U.S.-origin equipment
4. An excellent deep-water port in Haifa
5. Modern air facilities
6. A position close to sea-lanes and an ability to project power over
long distances
7. A domestic air force larger than many in Western Europe and
possessing more up-to-
date hardware
8. Multilingual capabilities, including facility in English, Arabic and
the languages of the
(former) Soviet Union
9. Combat familiarity with Soviet/Russian-style tactics and equipment
10. The ability to assist U.S. naval fleets, including common equipment
11. The ability to support American operations and to provide emergency
air cover
12. A democratic political system with a strong orientation to support
the United States
and the NATO system.

In 1996, we noted that Israel's military R&D capabilities complement
those of the U.S.; its intelligence services cooperate closely with ours
- to our benefit; and large numbers of American troops train in Israel.

In 2006, we would add that, in large measure through JINSA's Law
Enforcement Exchange Program, American police and law enforcement
officials have reaped the benefit of close cooperation with Israeli law
enforcement in the areas of first response and counter-terrorism practices.

Israel and the United States are drawn together by common values and
common threats to our well-being. The proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction across the Middle East and Asia, and the ballistic missile
technology to deliver systems across wide areas require cooperation in
intelligence, technology and security policy. Terrorism and the origins
and dissemination of violent Islamic radicalism also need to be
addressed multi-laterally when possible.

In a volatile region so vital to the U.S., where other states cannot be
relied upon, it would be foolish to disengage - or denigrate - an ally
such as Israel. The war against terrorists and the states that harbor
and support them will be long and hard, and success will depend in no
small measure on the allies who stand with us and with whom we stand.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3364

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Sunday, March 26, 2006

Israel Campus Beat - March 26, 2006

Dateline: March 26, 2006Subscribe | My Subscription | Search | Archives | About ICB | Contact Us
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Israeli Election Briefing: Political Parties
by Sharmila Devi

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, March 28 to elect members to the 120-seat Knesset or parliament. The last elections in January 2003 were won by Ariel Sharon, who is in a coma after suffering a massive stroke almost three months ago. Polls give the lead to the party he founded, Kadima, now led by Ehud Olmert, acting prime minister. Mr. Olmert says he will accept in coalition only those parties that approve his 'convergence plan' for a unilateral withdrawal from some isolated Jewish settlements in the West Bank in order to keep the large settlement blocs. (Financial Times)


Additional Headlines

Abbas Will Disband Palestinian Cabinet If Needed

Iran's Nuclear Steps Quicken, Diplomats Say

Al-Qaida Eyes Israeli Battleground

40,000 North American Students 'Vote' Online in Israeli Elections
by Daphna Berman

Some 40,000 students on more than 75 North America college campuses participated in a mock Israeli election this week. The online voting kicked off last week and results will be announced on Sunday. As part of this year's project, students logged on to www.Israelvotes.com and received background information on various parties, candidates and their platforms. (Ha'aretz)


An Israel Transformed
by Gerald M. Steinberg

Israelis are about to go the polls for the 6th time in less than 14 years - an unenviable record among the world's democracies. The high frequency of national elections is surely one of the main reasons for apathy and the number of undecided voters in the pre-election surveys. In the previous elections, the main issues were based on ideology - Left vs. Right; Orthodox vs. secular, and so on. But in these elections pragmatic realism is the main theme, not only in Kadima, but spilling over into Labor and Likud. (Jerusalem Post)


Arizona: Israel Comes to Tucson in Hillel Event
by Laura Ory

A camel named Chewy drew attention from students at yesterday's Israelpalooza, an event on the UA Mall organized to educate students about Israel. Israelpalooza was sponsored by the Hillel Foundation and was organized to educate students about Israel and erase the misconceptions students may have about the country and its people, said Erin Searle, a Judaic studies senior. (Wildcat)


Harvard: KSG Seeks Distance from Paper
by Paras D. Bhayani

The Kennedy School of Government (KSG) removed its logo from a controversial paper published last week by Academic Dean Stephen M. Walt and the University of Chicago's John J. Mearsheimer. A disclaimer stating that the views expressed belong only to the authors was also made more prominent on the working paper's cover. (Crimson)

Colorado: Building Bridges for Peace
by Erica Seldin

In an intimate lecture last week, Melodye Feldman, founder of Seeking Common Ground, led a powerful discussion of her mission to ease the conflict in the Middle East through honest listening and communication between Israeli and Palestinian children. She started a camp that hosts 45 middle school girls from Israel, Palestine and America of varying religions, cultures and beliefs in the Colorado Mountains.  (Campus Press)


Indiana: Speaker: Nuclear Weapons in Iran Could Lead to Arms Race
by Chris Freiberg

If Iran attains nuclear weapons, it could lead to a new arms race in the Mideast and the end of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, said Bradley Gordon, an expert on the region, who previously worked for the CIA and is currently director of policy and government relations for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. In the second half of the presentation, Gordon discussed the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. (Indiana Digital Student)

Point-Counterpoint - Perspectives on the Mearsheimer/Walt Paper Attacking the "Israel Lobby"


The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy
by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt

Apart from its alleged strategic value, Israel's backers also argue that it deserves unqualified U.S. support because 1) it is weak and surrounded by enemies, 2) it is a democracy, which is a morally preferable form of government; 3) the Jewish people have suffered from past crimes and therefore deserve special treatment, and 4) Israel's conduct has been morally superior to its adversaries' behavior. On close inspection, however, each of these arguments is unpersuasive. (Kennedy School of Government Notes)


The Basis of the U.S.-Israel Alliance: An Israeli Response to the Mearsheimer-Walt Assault
by Dore Gold

  • On December 27, 1962, President John F. Kennedy told Israeli Foreign Minister Golda Meir: "The United States has a special relationship with Israel in the Middle East really comparable only to what it has with Britain over a wide range of world affairs."
  • In the 1980s, several memoranda of understanding between the U.S. and Israel on strategic cooperation were followed by regular joint military exercises, where U.S. forces were given access to Israel's combat techniques.
  • Saudi Arabia has tried to tilt U.S. policy using a vast array of powerful PR firms, former diplomats, and well-connected officials, with the result being that America is still overly dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Given the ultimate destination of those petrodollars in recent years (the propagation of Islamic extremism and terrorism), a serious investigation of those lobbying efforts appears to be far more appropriate than focusing on relations between the U.S. and Israel.  (Institute for Contemporary Affairs/Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)


The Graves of Academe
by Melanie Phillips

  • The fundamental misrepresentations and distortions in this paper are quite astonishing. Take this claim, for example, that Israeli citizenship "is based on the principle of blood kinship." This is totally untrue. [More than a million] Arabs and other non-Jews are Israeli citizens.
  • This is but the latest example of a poisonous pathology which has gripped the intelligentsia of the West, centered around a visceral loathing of America, Israel, the neocons, and the Jews.
  • The university world is not a disinterested bystander at the current struggle between freedom and genocidal clerical fascism. It is instead an active player - and on the wrong side. (melaniephillips.com)


An Unfair Attack
by David Gergen

  • [The] nerve-jangling essay entitled "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," written by Mearsheimer and Walt...[make] charges wildly at variance with what I have personally witnessed in the Oval Office over the years....They also impugn the loyalty and the unstinting service to America's national security by public figures like Dennis Ross, Martin Indyk, and many others.
  • As a Christian, let me add that it is also wrong and unfair to call into question the loyalty of millions of American Jews who have faithfully supported Israel while also working tirelessly and generously to advance America's cause, both at home and abroad. (U.S. News)

Response to Mearsheimer/Walt Paper
by James Taranto

  • Israel is weak and surrounded by enemies. To the contrary, they say, Israel is by far the strongest regional power. It is true that Israel is the regional superpower, and that Cairo and Amman have signed peace treaties with the Jewish state, but it seems undeniable - and Walt and Mearsheimer do not deny it - that none of this would be true absent U.S. support for Israel. Thus their reasoning is circular: Israel doesn't deserve U.S. support because it has received U.S. support.
  • Israel is a democracy. This they concede, but they also claim that "some aspects of Israeli democracy are at odds with core American values." In particular, they claim that Arab citizens of Israel "are treated as second-class citizens." Yet even acknowledging that Israeli democracy is flawed, its political system is still vastly superior to those of its adversaries. Israeli Arabs enjoy more political and civil liberties than citizens of just about any Arab country.
  • Jews deserve a homeland because of their past oppression. Walt and Mearsheimer lay the plight of the Palestinians entirely at Israel's door, failing to acknowledge the Arab states' vast culpability. The Arabs rejected the 1947 U.N. partition of Palestine, which would have created a Palestinian Arab state including territories beyond the present-day West Bank and Gaza strip. The Arabs immediately declared war on the nascent Jewish state and they waged war again in 1967 and 1973. Nor do the authors acknowledge that since the creation of Israel many Jews who settled there were fleeing persecution in Arab lands and (since 1979) Iran.
  • Israel is morally superior to its adversaries. Here they cite various alleged abuses by Israel during its war of independence and claim that "Israel's subsequent conduct has often been brutal, belying any claim to moral superiority." Even if we concede all the criticisms of Israel, they do not belie "any claim to moral superiority," only to moral perfection. (Wall Street Journal)


The Israel Conspiracy
by Bret Stephens

  • But here's a puzzle: If Israel is so damaging to U.S. interests, why do consistent and broad majorities of Americans support it? A Gallup poll from last month shows that Americans are more sympathetic to Israelis than to Palestinians by 59% to 15%. (Wall Street Journal)

        See also:
  • Jeffrey Herf and Andrei S. Markovits, Letter to the Editor, London Review of Books
  • Martin Kramer, "The Reality behind Charges about 'The Israel Lobby,' Sandstorm


Stephen Walt's War with Israel
by Richard Baehr and Ed Lasky

  • Walt and Mearsheimer's attacks on Israel fail every basic test of fairness, and lead one to believe they would prefer a world without Israel. Israel is demonized by the authors, while thuggish terror-supporting states such as Iran and Syria are presented as potential important allies of America, and are insulated from any criticism.
  • The authors deliberately choose to ignore the Israeli offers of peace after the 1967 war. These offers were roundly and proudly rejected by the Arab world in the infamous "3 Nos" of the Khartoum Resolution: No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with Israel. (American Thinker)

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