JINSA Report #596 Weakening Deterrence

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August 18, 2006

JINSA Report #596

Weakening Deterrence

As JINSA celebrates its 30th anniversary, two of our fundamental
principles remain fixed: we will continue to transform our understanding
of threats to our interests into action in defense of those interests;
and will refrain from interference with the political and military
decisions made by the governments of our allies and friends.

But interference is one thing and criticism entirely another when
American national security interests are weakened by a friend.
Especially when weakened by a friend. Israel is a friend and more -
Israel is a partner in the West's war against terrorists and the states
that harbor and support them.

President Bush clearly believed Israel's destruction of Hizballah would
be a victory on one front of our common war; a proxy victory over Iran.
The Administration gave Israel time and political support. Under
American leadership, the G-8 and Sunni Arab countries publicly denounced
Hezbollah. Even at the UN, the U.S. held out for language on what Israel
called its strategic goals - return of its soldiers, dismantling
Hezbollah and extending Lebanese sovereignty to the south.

The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Olmert and the Kadima/Labor
coalition, however, stopped short of achieving those goals through
military operations, and it is very unlikely they will achieve them by
political means (despite our support this week of French diplomacy).
Civilian leadership was indecisive and lacked coordination with - or
lacked confidence in - the IDF command echelon. The IDF has defended its
intelligence on Lebanon as well as its plans, blaming the civilian
leadership for changes in military priorities. Whatever the reason, in
combination they created a weakened Israeli deterrent capability and a
concomitant weakened American/Western position against a broad range of
terrorist threats. The result, at least for now, is an emboldening of
terrorist organizations and terrorist nations.

To spread criticism fairly, it must be said that U.S. military attacks
on eastern Syrian staging grounds for terrorist infiltration into Iraq
would have benefited both countries.

And to temper our criticism, we observe that the soldiers of the IDF
were magnificent - the "citizen army" of young conscripts plus the
butcher-baker-and-candlestick-maker reserves shouldered the risks and
for over a month absorbed the casualties of fighting, plus the
additional casualties resulting from warning the civilians of Lebanon -
and thus the terrorists - of their impending approach. And we are in awe
of the civilians of Israel - those in the north who were in the line of
fire and those farther south who organized to shelter, support and help
them.

Since its founding, Israel has been the only consistently pro-American
country in the Middle East and the only stable democracy in the region.
Political leaders in both countries come and go at the demand of the
people. The foundation of our partnership is surely not broken - but it
has been weakened and there will be a price to pay before it can be fixed.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3519
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