JINSA Report #571 Back to the Future: Libya and Egypt

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May 18, 2006

JINSA Report #571

Back to the Future: Libya and Egypt

During the Central American wars, the Reagan Administration was
criticized for supporting repressive, but anti-communist governments.
Amb. Jeane Kirkpatrick, our mentor and friend, noted that while engaged,
the U.S. could push them in the right political direction, but if they
fell to the communist alternative, the possibility of increasing civil
liberties was remote. One could see in this the lesson of the
abandonment of the Iranian people to the clutches of the ayatollahs.

By and large, over the years it proved true - in areas as distant and
different as Central America and Iran, where the government is
controlled by ideological or religious dictators, the opening for
gradual change (as opposed to change itself) is substantially less than
in places controlled by secular, non-ideological dictators. If we were
simply picking our poison, we could stop here - but Libya and Egypt are
on the table.

In the Middle East, the siren songs of pan-Arab nationalism and
communism have been replaced by the siren song of religious
fundamentalism. Like other "isms," it is restrictive, repressive and
uninterested in constructive engagement with free societies, accounting
for the Odd Couple relationship between Chavez and Ahmadinejad. It is in
our national interest to ensure that fewer countries move that way than
our way.

Restoration of diplomatic relations with Libya, following Khaddafi's
surrender of WMD capabilities and step back from support of terrorism,
is neither approval of or absolution for the regime; only recognition
that it has ceased to do what most threatened us. No one would mistake
it for a nice country, so this should be the beginning of a process of
engagement to help open Libyan society to civil liberties and civic space.

This, then, is the worst possible time for the Administration to botch
our relationship with Egypt's secular, non-ideological dictatorship. But
that's what it is doing.

The Mubarak government is tightening the noose on judges who had begun a
move toward increased judicial independence, including two judges who
criticized abuses in last year's elections. News accounts tell of
security men clubbing and kicking protesters demonstrating in support of
the judges in Cairo. This follows by only days what appears to have been
a pleasant meeting between the Administration and Gamal Mubarak, the
heir apparent.

Mubarak moans that if we don't support him Egypt will fall to the Muslim
Brotherhood. In no uncertain terms, the U.S. should tell him that it is
precisely his heavy hand that increases support for Islamists in Egypt.
American political, economic and military support must be predicated on
widening the civic space for the judges and protesters, releasing
democracy advocate Ayman Nour from prison, and ensuring non-interference
in the establishment of political parties. And furthermore, we don't
support hereditary government, so young Mr. Mubarak should consider
other options.

Anything less fails the Egyptian people and sets the stage for failure
in Libya as well.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3405

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