The Anti-Iran Axis and the new Iranian Revolution
Out of the 2006 Lebanon War and the 2008/9 Operation Cast Lead (the IDF against Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas) coalesced the Middle Eastern anti-Iran axis of Israel plus Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf States except Qatar. The Sunni Arab countries greeted President Obama's early overtures to the Iranian government with such alarm that Secretary of Defense Gates and then President Obama himself dashed off to Egypt and Saudi Arabia to reassure them. [Egypt, of course, was already on the President's schedule, but Saudi Arabia was a late addition.]
So one might think the new Iranian revolution would make the axis happy. At its best, it could remove the Shiite clerical rulers, upsetting Iranian funding and the influence of some of the most malign forces in the region, changing the balance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and the Palestinian territories just for starters. It would discomfit Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. It is unlikely that a new Iranian government would pursue nuclear weapons, Shiite triumphalism or the harassment of Hosni Mubarak by Hezbollah.
But among the axis members, only democratic Israel has unmixed feelings as it watches the people of Iran trying to make themselves heard and their influence felt against their repressive government.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf States including Qatar are all, themselves, repressive governments. They may well hate the Iranian government as Shiite, Persian and expansionist - but in their heart of hearts they identify with a government that controls the levers of power in the government, media and security forces. Popular revolution terrifies them all because the next one could be against them, especially now.
The ability of people to network means pro-democracy forces around the Arab world are watching and rooting for the people against the government. Inside Iran, the uprising is now less about the election than about throwing off dictators, repression and fear. Win or lose for the Iranians, how long will it be before small-d democrats in Egypt and Saudi Arabia turn their anger against their own dictators?
The djinni is out of the bottle, so to speak.
If the region's secular Arab dictators fear revolution, the United States apparently fears that Sunni fundamentalists would win open elections. But there is no reason to think people in the Arab world crave to make the mistakes of the Persians. In the last parliamentary election in Jordan, Islamists received 5.5% of the vote.
In American policy there is - or should be - a difference between undermining a friendly dictator (Mubarak, for example) and giving him tools to try to prevent his overthrow by his own people. The elements of consensual government - not quick elections among anti-democratic groups, but the freedoms that permit free and fair elections: a free press, free association and free speech; and the protection of minorities and women - could help open the pressure release valve and permit the maturation of both the government and the citizenry. The only other way to release that pressure is on view in Tehran.
If President Obama and Secretary Clinton could only find their pre-election voices, they could provide succor to the Iranian people and hope to the people of the Arab world at the same time.
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