JINSA Report #515 This One Is for Practice

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September 7, 2005

JINSA Report #515

This One Is for Practice

Tomorrow, Egyptians will go through the motions of an election with many
familiar trappings – registration lines, ballots, booths, officials,
counters and "observers." There will even be more than one candidate on
the ballot. But don't be confused. This is NOT an election; it is yet
another referendum on president-for-life Mubarak.

We know the inputs necessary for democratic elections, and understand
that repressive countries often get the form right but the content and
the context wrong. And sometimes that's OK, particularly when an open
voting system (good form) without a civil society from which legitimate
political parties and leaders could emerge before the vote (bad context)
would simply oust the old dictator and install a new one (very bad
content). In repressive societies the only organized "opposition" ready
to take advantage of a newly open vote is not parliamentary/civilian but
revolutionary/terrorist.

In Egypt's case, we would be trading the secular, nationalist,
dictatorial Mubarak for the fundamentalist, pan-Arab, dictatorial Muslim
Brotherhood. From the first we are likely to get more elections in the
future. From the second, probably not.

To those who say, "If the US really wants democracy in the Arab world,
it shouldn't accept the re-ratification of Egypt's dictatorship," we
would say, "Nor should we force the Egyptian people to choose right this
minute between two non-democratic options."
In Cairo in June, Secretary of State Rice said, "For 60 years, my
country... pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region
here in the Middle East – and we achieved neither. Now, we are taking a
different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all
people." She lauded, "President Mubarak's decision to amend the
country's constitution and hold multiparty elections (unlocking) the
door for change."
There are many potential slips between that unlocked door and a
multiparty election dedicated to a peaceful change of government. The
American government must accept the results of this referendum lest we
find ourselves in bed with the Brotherhood. But we must also continue
to poke, prod, and if need be, browbeat the Egyptian government into
accepting political responsibility for increased civil liberties and
emerging political parties. Or threaten, if tying future US aid to
advances in the civic sphere would help. And under no circumstances
should we let our acquiescence to Mubarak's continued governance of
Egypt undermine our insistence that Egypt meet all of its security
commitments to Israel.
-----------------------------------
A note about Katrina: We were NOT trying to absolve the Federal
Government of blame for disaster response Friday – FEMA clearly needs
reconstitution. But if you think the Feds are your FIRST line of
response to a terrorist attack or natural disaster, you are mistaken.
Personal, then local and State response are necessary. By law, the Feds
only provide aid upon request, so make sure your plans are in place.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3144

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