JINSA Report #517 Which Way will Egypt Go? Part I

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September 14, 2005

JINSA Report #517

Which Way will Egypt Go? Part I

It is our view that Israel withdrew from Gaza NOT in hopes of energizing
some mythical "peace process," but precisely because there could be no
peace, and indeed no process of any sort with any existing Palestinian
leadership. The descent into chaos in Gaza was predictable and
predicted. The torching of empty synagogue buildings is emblematic.
What was sacred about the space was gone, but the very idea that these
had been places in which Jews studied and prayed drove Palestinian
looters to frenzy. Greenhouses, purchased by private donors as a gift to
provide employment for Palestinians, were looted by people for whom
tomorrow is an alien concept.

With no hope of Palestinian security control of Palestinian territory,
eyes turn to Egypt on the southern border – the Philadelphi Corridor –
where tunnels 10-20 meters under the surface and wide enough to drive
electric handcarts through have been used to smuggle arms and ammunition
to Palestinian gangs. What will Egypt do?

There are two schools of thought, both most reasonable.

Such serious security thinkers as Yuval Steinitz, Chairman of the
Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, espouse the first
scenario which is described here. Egypt and the Palestinians will make
common military cause against Israel and the killing of a Palestinian by
Egyptian security forces in Rafah was a diversion to create confusion to
allow smuggling to increase. Under this scenario, the Egyptians will
return to their pre-1967 line in northern Gaza and be 6 miles from
Israel's port and major energy center in Ashkelon.
This squares with longstanding JINSA concerns about Egyptian military
intentions. In 2001, we wrote: "The U.S. has transformed the Egyptian
military from a Russian-style force to a modern American-equipped one
with F-16D jet fighters, M1A1 tanks with depleted uranium rounds,
frigates, air-defense radars, and plans for the Multiple Launch Rocket
System. [Will we add] "Harpoon Block II surface-to-surface missiles and
patrol boats?" (JINSA Reports #225-227) In 2002, there was Egyptian help
for the Karine-A weapons ship (#234) and collaboration with North Korea
on ballistic missiles. (#237) In 2004, it was Egyptian-Libyan
collaboration on long-range missiles and nuclear technology, and the
links of both to Pakistan and North Korea. (#401) Most recently,
proposed French sales of sea-to-sea and sea-land missiles, plus American
JDAMS that would upgrade the capabilities of Egypt's existing arsenal of
bombs. (#502)
None of these do you need for peacekeeping or border security between
Egypt and Gaza; all are what you want if you plan to attack another
country.
And, while Egypt is amassing its arsenal, it is beset by domestic
problems emanating from the dictatorial rule of Hosni Mubarak. We hope
Egypt's government changes through evolution rather than revolution, and
so argue for changing American military aid into economic assistance.

It is Egypt's own fear of revolution, in fact, that may make it Israel's
ally on Gaza rather than its adversary. That's the scenario to be
discussed tomorrow.

To view this JINSA Report online click on the link below.
http://www.jinsa.org/JINSAReports/3147

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